Renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions over the weekend lifted oil prices on supply fears and is weighing on stocks but mortgage bonds and Treasury yields are near unchanged and already off the worst levels of the day.
A turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on the prospects for peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deal. WTI oil is up $4.85 to $88.70/bbl.
The bond markets are shrugging off the headlines ahead of a week that features just a few economic reports, no Fed speak and no Treasury auction.
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, April 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET as part of the confirmation process for a potential Federal Reserve Chair nomination.
The blackout period for Fed speak is in effect this week and until after the meeting on April 29.
Technical Outlook:
The FNMA 30-year 5.5% coupon is above resistance at 101.00. The 10-year yield is 4.24%, with support at 4.20%.
Recommendation:
Consider floating most files - watch key level with us and have your Tabrasa One mobile app activated.
Have a great week!
Video Script & Client Messaging:
· Where are rates headed? Lower.
· Why? Optimism in Middle East.
· What’s next? Mid-level economic reports this week. Geopolitical headlines.
Please enjoy this week’s edition of Top 10 to share with clients, referrals, etc …
1. Hand me that hammer. More than two in five (43%) Americans renovated their home in the last year, and another 33% plan to renovate in the next year. Roughly two-thirds (65%) of homeowners who are recent renovators chose to upgrade their current home instead of moving (source: Redfin).
2. So much for a gusher? On March 9, West Texas Intermediate oil hit $120 a barrel, on Friday April 17, it fell to $80.56. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a U.S. benchmark grade of crude oil used as a key global pricing reference for oil markets (source: Tabrasa).
3. That’s the way. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.30% as of April 16, 2026, down from the previous week when it averaged 6.37%. A year ago, it averaged 6.83% (source: Freddie Mac).
4. Housing … by the numbers. Existing-home sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in March, while unsold inventory rose 3.0% to 1.36 million units, representing a 4.1-month supply; year over year, sales declined 1.0% while the median existing-home price increased 1.4% to $408,800 (source: NAR).
5. Champagne wishes and caviar dreams. Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan’s purchase of a $170 million waterfront estate in Miami was far and away the most expensive home sale in the U.S. last month. The home is on an island known as the ‘Billionaire Bunker’ (source: Redfin).
6. Zooming in. U.S. typical home values stood at $365,545 in March 2026 (up 0.8% year over year), while typical rents rose 1.8% to $1,910; newly pending sales totaled 300,398 (up 3.7% year over year), and the typical mortgage payment came in at $1,789 (sources: Zillow).
7. Consumer pulse. U.S. average gasoline prices fell to $4.07 per gallon on Friday April 17 from $4.15 the previous week. With oil prices plunging late last week, prices could fall further this week (source: AAA/Tabrasa).
8. Mortgage rate outlook. Forecasts for the average 30-year mortgage rate by the end of 2026 range from 5.7% to 6.2%, with Fannie Mae at 5.7%, the National Association of REALTORS® at 6.0%, Bright MLS at 6.15%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association at 6.2% (sources: Fannie Mae / NAR / Bright MLS / MBA).
9. Front porch season. Sales of grills, patio furniture and lawn gear typically pick up in late April as Americans turn their attention to warmer weekends, backyard gatherings and outdoor living (sources: NRF / seasonal retail trends).
10. The meaning of life is to find your gift. The purpose of life is to give it away – Pablo Picasso (source: BrainyQuote).
